lockdown (45 days I expect)30-90 days of total lockdown in London. Government have talked about "12 weeks to turn the tide". Things always take longer than they promise so I expect it to be 4-6 months of real pain. I think they're trying to hold off lockdown for now as they know it will need to be for a long time once it comes. Suspect lockdown could happen as early as next week. I'm moving out of the capital tomorrow as a result.
life starting back slowing from thenDepends on how strict the lockdown. In China this was so well enforced that they appear to have come back quickly. My fear is that where people wait too long or aren't strict enough, things take much longer. I think there will be significantly reduced activity (-50-100%) in the most affected industries for 3-6 months.
normal "portfolio" activity of clients in sept ?Down for rest of year but varies by industry. Different for b2b vs b2c and depending on whether your product is a vitamin or a painkiller. For major consumer purchases (e.g., house sales) there will be lots of job insecurity so less tx. For b2b every business will be looking hard at unnecessary expenditure for some time, even if they are getting back to normality so this will be down (-20-30% on average) at least until eoy.- long term effect on growth for 18 month ?I'm more bullish here.
If the virus can be suppressed, governments have shown willingness to unleash whatever quant easing etc is required to bring the markets and businesses back to life. People have v short memories and will get back to normal as soon as the virus lets them (6-12 months IMO). Amounts of Quantitative Easing are never seen before.